Friday, October 22, 2010

The Great Bust Ahead" - A Book Review

By Joseph Conigliaro
This concise description of the analysis of demographics and the correlation to markets, leads one invariable to the same conclusion as is reached by the author. No words are minced by Daniel A. Arnold as he goes about explaining that we are at or near then next great economic depression. Recent events have shaken consumer confidence, but after you read this book you will be confident that the greatest depression of all time is around the corner.

Mr. Arnold expertly lays out the facts and correlates prior recessions and depressions to a demographic he calls the big spenders, a sub-demographic of 45-54 year olds. Charts and Graphs are expertly used to illustrate each correlation of the demographic to the stock market history. At the end of the book to conclusion is irrefutable. Economic conditions are mostly dictated by population distribution and as the 100,000,000 baby boomers move toward retirement and slow down their spending, the economy will slow also. "The boomers as a group approach in size the entire population of Japan - every man woman and child! Think of it. Try to get your mind around the magnitude of it." The analysis is crisp, clear and concise. The conclusion is a stark realization of an economic inevitability, a depression longer and deeper than has ever occurred in our history is immanent.

The book is based on demographic data gathered in the Vorago Database and historical data stock market data. If you are concerned about your economic future this is a must read.


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